Update 07/16

Fermi Project

Goal: Figure out how to make the probe velocity and range normally distributed within our FORTRAN model.
​Click here to see the PDF which summarizes my progress so far and my next steps.

Current Model Output (Colored by Technology, Pink=Unsettled)

Inputs
v00.0001c=30 km/sInitial Probe Velocity
r010 lyrInitial Probe Range
t0=r0/v0100,000 yearsInitial Probe Lifetime

Coupled EBM

Comparing Experiments

dPdT: Amount of pCO2 that must be added to the atmosphere in order to change the climate by 1 degree Kelvin.

Experiment #1: Constant Composition (P0=284 ppm)

Experiment #2: Constant Temperature (T0=287.09 K)

Earth-Like Inputs

  • t0=1820
    • We choose this because our data starts here.
  • P0=284 ppm
    • This was the global CO2 concentrations during 1820.
  • N0=1.129 billion people
    • This was the global population during 1820.
  • Nmax=10 Billion people
  • dT=5K=Temperature Sensitivity
    • We chose this because it seemed reasonable in regards to what kind of temperature range humans can survive in.
  • dP=200 ppm=Carbon Dioxide Sensitivity
    • Similar to dT, we choose this because it seemed reasonable
  • A0=0.04 1/yr=Initial Per-Capita Birth Rate
    • We chose this based on the assumption that the average time for a generation is 25 years, so that A0=1/25=0.04 1/yr
  • B0=0.036 1/yr=Initial Per-Capita Death Rate
    • We chose this value in order to tune our model to the data.
  • C=0.000275 ppm/(106ppl*yr)=Per-Capita Carbon Footprint
    • We chose this based on present-day values


Are these numbers reasonable?

The relevant quantity for how population grows is the difference between A0 and B0, this quantity is called the per-capita (net) growth rate. The relevant quantity for how CO2 concentrations change as a function of population growth is C, the per-capita carbon footprint. We can compare our models values against global values to determine how accurate our model is.

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